The Odds Game

I am a trained statistician and data scientist. I deal with uncertainty and know how to stack the odds when possible. This site attempts to deduce the most probable course of action in adjusting the microbiome.

The following is an illustration of logic:


  • Odd of death from measles: 1/10,000 [src]
  • Vaccination: [src]
    • 1 dose is 93% effective
    • 2 doses is 97% effective
    • Serious Allergic response: 1/ 1,000,000 [src]

So, comparing 2 doses, means that death from measles for those that are vaccinated is 1/330,000 instead of 1/10,000. The odds of death vs a Serious Allergic response is: 1/330,000(Death) vs 1/500,000 (Allergic). Sice an allergic response does not guarantee death, vaccination is still preferred for giving the best odds.

Bottom line numbers is clearer:

  • Vaccination: Odd of death with measles is 1/330,000
  • Odd of death without vaccination for measles is 1/10,000

The odds of my child living is 330x better with vaccination. The odds of not getting measles during an epidemic needs to be 329/330 – very improbable.