Odds Ratio Snapshot: Long COVID

This document presents the results of statistical analysis on symptoms from viable, self-annotated Biomesight microbiome samples. The methodology for data acquisition is outlined in New Standards for Microbiome Analysis?.

Tables have been refined to display only genus- and species-level taxa, the 20 most prominent entries per group, and associations achieving statistical significance (P < 0.01).

The following sections provide the processed data, accompanied by guidance on interpretation and application. Counts of significant bacterial taxa are included, reflecting the application of non-standard but rigorously validated statistical approaches to extensive sample and reference populations, where statistical power derives from dataset scale.

SignificanceGenus
p < 0.01223
p < 0.001199
p < 0.0001181
p < 0.00001164

Averages and Medians

I prefer medians over averages. Medians are the values where half of the people have less and half has more. If the data was a bell-curve, then the values will almost be the same… with bacteria that happens rarely. Look at the bacterua below, we see that for some the average is above and the median below. Should one increase or decrease this bacteria?

If symptom median is higher than reference median, it means there is more of this bacteria. If lower, then less. This ignores how often the bacteria is seen (we average only over reports). IMHO using average value instead of median will often result in a worse situation for the patient

tax_nameRankSymptom AverageReference AverageSymptom MedianReference Median
Faecalibacterium prausnitziispecies13.57512.08611.27512.554
Phocaeicola doreispecies3.4842.8540.3950.746
Roseburiagenus2.4322.8761.8121.484
Lachnospiragenus2.4242.7551.9011.631
Roseburia faecisspecies0.8551.2390.5940.378
Sutterella wadsworthensisspecies0.750.650.0490.239
Coprococcusgenus1.0831.4630.7410.609
Pedobactergenus1.2990.9710.5510.651
Blautia wexleraespecies0.4740.5890.3240.27
Anaeroplasmagenus1.1970.4320.0030.05
Doreagenus0.4540.4860.2990.256
Parabacteroides goldsteiniispecies0.5850.5690.1330.171
Thermicanusgenus0.2060.1880.1010.127
Odoribactergenus0.280.1890.1220.146
Bacteroides stercorirosorisspecies0.1660.1960.1390.116
Collinsella aerofaciensspecies0.1540.1720.050.071
Acetivibrio alkalicellulosispecies0.2370.2610.10.08
Acetivibriogenus0.2460.270.1050.085
Dorea formicigeneransspecies0.1110.1360.0860.067
Anaerofilumgenus0.230.2730.1090.092

Bacteria Incidence – How often is it reported

The common sense belief is that if a bacteria is reported more often, then the amount should be higher. This is often not true. The microbiome is a complex thing.

tax_nameRankIncidence Odds RatioChi2Symptoms %Reference %
Lactococcusgenus1.277.260.547.6
Sporotomaculumgenus0.728.831.643.8
Sporotomaculum syntrophicumspecies0.738.531.343.2
Enterobacter hormaecheispecies0.76.91825.8
Actinopolysporagenus0.589.910.618.2
Rothia mucilaginosaspecies0.628.311.718.8
Citrobactergenus0.657.112.519.2
Peptoniphilus lacrimalisspecies1.478.220.714.1
Chromatiumgenus0.637.311.217.6
Chromatium weisseispecies0.647.311.217.6
Anaerococcus hydrogenalisspecies1.486.916.110.9

More or Less often based on Symptom Median All Incidence

This is a little more complex to understand. If we compute the mid point for people with the symptom, then if the bacteria was not involved then half of the reference should be above this value and half below this value. If not, it means that the symptom tends to over or under growth.

tax_nameRankSymptom MedianOdds RatioChi2BelowAbove
Isoalcanivoraxgenus0.0020.2776.737099
Isoalcanivorax indicusspecies0.0020.2776.737099
Alcanivoraxgenus0.0020.2776.6380103
Nostoc flagelliformespecies0.0020.2574.831178
Niabella aurantiacaspecies0.0020.3271.5534172
Pelagicoccus croceusspecies0.0020.366378115
Psychrobacter glacialisspecies0.0020.3665.8654233
Deferribacter autotrophicusspecies0.0020.3165.2378116
Deferribactergenus0.0020.3164.6381118
Salidesulfovibriogenus0.0020.3263.2386122
Salidesulfovibrio brasiliensisspecies0.0020.3263.2386122
Actinopolysporagenus0.0020.3660.6537192
Niabellagenus0.0020.3660.1571208
Rickettsia marmionii Stenos et al. 2005species0.0020.3360394130
Lentibacillusgenus0.0020.3657.6500181
Psychroflexusgenus0.0020.3257.5343111
Psychroflexus gondwanensisspecies0.0020.3257.5343111
Lentibacillus salinarumspecies0.0020.3657.2485175
Viridibacillus neideispecies0.0020.3656.6463166
Bacillus ferrariarumspecies0.0020.3456.1361121

More or Less often based on Reference Median All Incidence

This is like the above, but with a different line in the sand. Instead of the median of those with the condition, we use the median of the reference set.

tax_nameRankReference MedianOdds RatioChi2BelowAbove
Actinopolysporagenus0.0030.16326.3628101
Nostocgenus0.0030.33281.51134376
Flammeovirgagenus0.0030.35186.1742261
Asticcacaulisgenus0.0030.42185.91064446
Flammeovirga pacificaspecies0.0030.35185.6741261
Planococcusgenus0.0030.32182.4613194
Planococcus columbaespecies0.0030.31176.2575179
Streptococcus oralisspecies0.0030.48167.31358652
Psychrobacter glacialisspecies0.0020.36164.8654233
Niabella aurantiacaspecies0.0020.32158.7534172
Clostridium tepidiprofundispecies0.0030.38152.9659248
Niabellagenus0.0020.36142.4571208
Alcanivoraxgenus0.0020.27142.3380103
Isoalcanivoraxgenus0.0020.27140.737099
Isoalcanivorax indicusspecies0.0020.27140.737099
Atopobium fossorspecies0.0030.37138.2555203
Lentibacillusgenus0.0020.36128.3500181
Nostoc flagelliformespecies0.0020.25127.531178
Desulfitobacteriumgenus0.0050.38126.8525197
Lentibacillus salinarumspecies0.0020.36125.5485175

More or Less often based on Symptom Median High Incidence

Above we see that many of the top bacteria identified are sparse, that is not reported often. We then restrict them to those that occur above 50% or the time.

tax_nameRankSymptom Median FreqOdds RatioChi2BelowAbove
Clostridium taeniosporumspecies0.0030.6217.51284800
Dethiosulfovibriogenus0.0040.6712.71433961
Tetragenococcus doogicusspecies0.0030.6811.81289875
Mycoplasmopsisgenus0.0050.71017071203
Hydrocarboniphaga daqingensisspecies0.0040.72915331097
Tetragenococcusgenus0.0030.746.81270946
Pediococcusgenus0.0040.756.61239926

More or Less often based on Reference Median High Incidence

Above we see that many of the top bacteria identified are sparse, that is not reported often. We then restrict them to those that occur above 50% or the time.

tax_nameRankReference Median FreqOdds RatioChi2BelowAbove
Actinopolysporagenus0.0030.16326.3628101
Nostocgenus0.0030.33281.51134376
Flammeovirgagenus0.0030.35186.1742261
Asticcacaulisgenus0.0030.42185.91064446
Flammeovirga pacificaspecies0.0030.35185.6741261
Planococcusgenus0.0030.32182.4613194
Planococcus columbaespecies0.0030.31176.2575179
Streptococcus oralisspecies0.0030.48167.31358652
Psychrobacter glacialisspecies0.0020.36164.8654233
Niabella aurantiacaspecies0.0020.32158.7534172
Clostridium tepidiprofundispecies0.0030.38152.9659248
Niabellagenus0.0020.36142.4571208
Alcanivoraxgenus0.0020.27142.3380103
Isoalcanivoraxgenus0.0020.27140.737099
Isoalcanivorax indicusspecies0.0020.27140.737099
Atopobium fossorspecies0.0030.37138.2555203
Lentibacillusgenus0.0020.36128.3500181
Nostoc flagelliformespecies0.0020.25127.531178
Desulfitobacteriumgenus0.0050.38126.8525197
Lentibacillus salinarumspecies0.0020.36125.5485175

Summary

A large number of bacterial taxa exhibit shifts with P < 0.01 in association with this condition. The subsequent challenge is determining how to modulate these taxa, since the volume of candidates exceeds what most individuals can practically consider. Moreover, for many of the taxa identified, there is no published evidence in the U.S. National Library of Medicine describing how to alter their abundance.

A deep optimization model, such as the one implemented on the Microbiome Taxa R2 site, can be used to inform probiotic selection. This model provides coverage for each identified taxon and infers which probiotics are most likely to shift their levels. Its output may then be integrated with more conventional recommendations derived from literature indexed in the U.S. National Library of Medicine where such evidence exists, with the two recommendation sets reconciled by giving priority to probiotic-based suggestions.

Development of a dedicated database based on Biomesight samples is in progress. The current model uses data contributed by PrecisionBiome, and datasets generated with differing laboratory processing pipelines cannot be safely combined, as discussed in The taxonomy nightmare before Christmas…. Once the Biomesight-specific database is complete, an option for generating (offline-only) personalized suggestions will be added to the Microbiome Prescription website.

Probiotics Suggestions

The following are based on a simplified algorithm using R2 data for Biomesight. These are tentative numbers subject to future refinements. Bacteria listed are only for probiotics detected with Biomesight tests. Probiotics include some that are available only in some countries and some that are pending approval for retail sale.

  • Good Count: Number of bacteria expected to shift in desired direction
  • Bad Count: Number of bacteria expected to shift in wrong direction
  • Impact: Estimator of impact based on Chi-2, Slope and R2 vectors
Blautia hansenii194.64190
Blautia wexlerae147.3880
Faecalibacterium prausnitzii74.57103
Enterococcus faecalis19.483444
Lactobacillus johnsonii9.372962
Streptococcus thermophilus4.180
Escherichia coli3.3582
Segatella copri2.8324
Enterococcus faecium2.161045
Bifidobacterium breve1.9123
Heyndrickxia coagulans1.89739
Bifidobacterium longum1.722
Bifidobacterium adolescentis1.4620
Enterococcus durans1.42730
Bifidobacterium bifidum0.4832
Bifidobacterium catenulatum0.2734
Lacticaseibacillus paracasei0.2514
Bifidobacterium animalis0.1611
Leuconostoc mesenteroides0.091126
Limosilactobacillus fermentum0.04929
Veillonella atypica-0.0324
Ligilactobacillus salivarius-0.11521
Lacticaseibacillus casei-0.13112
Lacticaseibacillus rhamnosus-0.23114
Lactiplantibacillus plantarum-0.26012
Limosilactobacillus reuteri-0.472431
Akkermansia muciniphila-0.51315
Lactobacillus acidophilus-0.7542
Lactobacillus crispatus-0.95143
Odoribacter laneus-0.9603
Bacillus subtilis-0.992955
Limosilactobacillus vaginalis-1.332170
Parabacteroides distasonis-1.3501
Bacteroides uniformis-2.433
Lactobacillus jensenii-2.56682
Bifidobacterium pseudocatenulatum-3.11543
Lactobacillus helveticus-5.0535100
Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron-5.1723
Clostridium butyricum-5.21035
Pediococcus acidilactici-9.294051
Parabacteroides goldsteinii-9.3012

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