Net Benefit Estimates

This actually exposes some of the challenges in estimating what a gut modifier will do. To illustrate it look at the example below. Most substances have mixed results, what you see listed is not unusual.

There are many ways of computing a net Benefit:

  • Add up those that move in the right direction, subtract those in the wrong, ignore the amount –>Category
  • As above but multiply by the number of bacteria away from the high or log –> Amount
  • Instead of the raw numbers, use log(number), borrowing from logistic regression and other concepts –> log(amount)
  • For each of the above we could also add in the confidence. This is based on the number of studies and the degree of agreement between studies (a.k.a. Fuzzy Logic factor) –> Log * Confidence
Bacteria – Shift – Amount (log)Substance (Confidence)CategoryAmountlog(Amount)Log * Confidence
A High by 1000 (3)Decrease (0.4)1100031.2
B High by 100(2)Decrease (0.8)110021.6
C High by 10 (1)Increase (1.2)-1–10-1-1.2
D Low by 1000 (3)Decrease (0.4)-1-1000-3-1.2
E Low by 100 (2)Increase(0.9)110021.8
F Low by 10 (1)Increase(1.2)11011.2
G High by 10,000 (4)Decreaseno info
H High by 100,000 (5)Increases (0.3)-1-100,000-5-1.5

Above we see two calculations suggesting that it will benefit, and two calculation suggesting it will not benefit. SCREAM!!!

The ideal is that all will be in agreement, if not, your philosophy or model ends up making the call. For my suggestions algorithms I use something similar to Log * Confidence.

Video on this post

You can roll your own…

All of the studies and sources on how some substance modifies different bacteria is shown on the site. The distributions are shown on the site. You can do your own data extract and apply your own logic and algorithms.

Warning: Suggestions from Labs and some Medical Professionals

Often I have found that lab gives suggestions. The better ones will give the medical citations behind the suggestions. Typically this is a single citation, often 30 years old study. In some cases, I have found later studies having opposite results — they have not keep current with all of the studies 🙁 OR they do not want to have to deal with contradictory results (thus grab one and use it for suggestions).

This also applies to some medical professionals. They keep their suggestions in their brains, usually reducing it to a single fact (like the labs). Keeping current is time consuming.

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